You can mostly ignore my comment, I was just wondering if some of the condensation that was occurring outside above the roof was running down through a pinhole in the flashing and caulking. But it could have just been that so much water was trapped that space in between the roof layers that it pooled and/or was wicked back upwards. Since years of moisture damage could have slowly made the problem worse and compound as you say.Thanks!
Sorry I didn’t understand fully your comment. We’re you saying that you think that most of the damage could have been from condensation in that part? Or you meant that it is not likely that it’s just the condensation and it could be other factors (like roof leak)
The fact that I saw all that water flowing to the top from pushing on it made me think that over 8 years that this water issue can compound.
As for why the ceiling is still dripping, your explanation of “thermal expansion” makes a lot of sense too. When it’s hotter out the water will take up more volume and is probably being “expelled” from the plywood, which when I last measured was about 40-50% moisture content.
It sucks to see the water under the duct like that but at the same time it’s promising as it’s proving our theory of duct condensation being the culprit behind all of this damage.