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I also believe you are on the right track with the dip tube. you have a thermometer to actually check the temperature of the water you are getting?
Is this only happening at one location?
At 12 years you could be already on borrowed time.
And it is entirely possible the gas control valve may not be working properly.
Shop around before you buy another water heater.
Power vented units start closer to $1200 if you are able to install it yourself.
And judging by your posts I suspect you have the knowledge to do so.
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