If the trap freezes then it CAN break. Will it break? Who knows but you are creating conditions that can cause it to happen. As far as the next shower thawing the ice clog.....how high do you imagine the water in the tub will be before that clog melts? My bet is mid calf.
you will have to do something to keep it from freezing. why cant it be insulated? what is below it. how do you plan to seal the hole in insulation that you made. is there access to the bottom of drain? if so you will need to figure out how to hang insulation................... there is another option here. you can let the hot water run all winter plus spring until the frost come out of the ground. breid
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