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Old 11-23-2009, 11:14 PM   #1
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Water Heater Problem


Tonight, my water heater (Bruce model: FCG-50-246 manufactured in the year of 1996) floods because of the Temperature – Pressure Relief Valve (TPRV) opened. I set up temperature setting to “A” one step over “Hot”. By the user manual, the temperature “A” approximates 130 F. By checking TPRV setting, it is 150 PSI or 210 F. The water heater set temperature “A” (130 F) is far from the TPRV set temperature (210 F). I’d like to get help that any parts get damaged? Is it the thermocouple problem?

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Old 11-24-2009, 08:19 AM   #2
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Water Heater Problem


Scrap it it has lived passed it's life.

Sounds like a defective thermostat not shutting down at set point.

I wouldn't put any money in it at this point.

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Old 11-24-2009, 12:48 PM   #3
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Water Heater Problem


Only 1/4th of NG WHs fail this early.
If you do fix it, it has a 50-50 chance of making it to 22 years.
Please post back with parts prices to help with making a 'rational' decision.

Last edited by Yoyizit; 11-24-2009 at 12:52 PM.
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Old 11-24-2009, 07:07 PM   #4
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WHat is the water temperature at your faucet? If it is higher than the TP valve's setting then it could be bad thermostat not shutting it down. Or, it could be high water pressure in your system causing TP valve to vent excess pressure. Do you have a backflow preventor or pressure reducing valve in your water system? If so, you might need an expansion tank.
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Old 11-25-2009, 07:25 AM   #5
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It's a good sign the valve is blowing out at least you know the valve is doing what it's supposed to do.

Has this ever happened before?

If the thermostat fails the high limit shutoff should take over and shut it down so that is the place to start. With them two things.

I would still replace it.

Very few water heaters last 22 years, analogy people can live to a hundred years old but how many do? I'll answer not many. So much for statistics.
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Old 11-25-2009, 09:54 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yoyizit View Post
Only 1/4th of NG WHs fail this early.
If you do fix it, it has a 50-50 chance of making it to 22 years.
Please post back with parts prices to help with making a 'rational' decision.
Where did you get this bogus info. More then 25% fail within 10 years(when you include all water heaters, gas, oil, electric).

Very very few(when you consider how many waters heaters there are in the world) make it to 20 years(I know lots of people with WH's over 20 years old, but know more that had them fail within 10 years).

The water conditions of the different areas, amount of yearly use, and the set water temp determine how long it will last.
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Old 11-25-2009, 02:49 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beenthere View Post
Where did you get this bogus info.
1
More then 25% fail within 10 years(when you include all water heaters, gas, oil, electric).
my data is only for NG. For some reason I haven't been able to get much data on elec. heaters.

Very very few(when you consider how many waters heaters there are in the world) make it to 20 years(I know lots of people with WH's over 20 years old, but know more that had them fail within 10 years).
2

3The water conditions of the different areas, amount of yearly use, and the set water temp determine how long it will last.
I have been expecting you. . .

1 From forum posters:
http://www.google.com/search?client=...UTF-8&oe=UTF-8
I can assure you there is no intent to defraud.

gas heaters, lifetimes
age|how many reached this age
3|1
5..|1
7..|1
8..|1
10|1
11|1
12|3
13|2
14|1
15|2
16|3
17|2
11
19|1
20|1
21|1
22|1
25|1
27|1
36|1
37|1
n = 28
sum = 453
so avg. replacement age (which is less than or equal to time-to-fail) 453/28 = 16.2 yrs.

2 1/4th of 28 = 7, so 25% fail in less than 12 yrs.
22 out of 28 (75%) make it to 20 yrs.

3 This is the nature of averages.

If you'd like to add some replacement ages for NGWHs I'll be glad to add them. The more samples, the more accuracy.

"Statistics is considered by some to be a mathematical science pertaining to the collection, analysis, interpretation or explanation, and presentation of data,[4] while others consider it to be a branch of mathematics[5] concerned with collecting and interpreting data.[6] Because of its empirical roots and its focus on applications, statistics is usually considered to be a distinct mathematical science rather than a branch of mathematics.[7][8]

Statisticians improve the quality of data with the design of experiments and survey sampling. Statistics also provides tools for prediction and forecasting using data and statistical models. Statistics is applicable to a wide variety of academic disciplines, including natural and social sciences, government, and business.

Statistical methods can be used to summarize or describe a collection of data; this is called descriptive statistics. This is useful in research, when communicating the results of experiments. In addition, patterns in the data may be modeled in a way that accounts for randomness and uncertainty in the observations, and are then used to draw inferences about the process or population being studied; this is called inferential statistics. Inference is a vital element of scientific advance, since it provides a prediction (based in data) for where a theory logically leads. To further prove the guiding theory, these predictions are tested as well, as part of the scientific method. If the inference holds true, then the descriptive statistics of the new data increase the soundness of that hypothesis. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics (a.k.a., predictive statistics) together comprise applied statistics.[9]"

My samples may not meet this standard
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_sample
but they're all I've got.

But then, your samples may not be random, either!

Last edited by Yoyizit; 11-25-2009 at 03:41 PM.
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Old 11-25-2009, 04:33 PM   #8
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I add up years to 356. Divided by 28 total users is 12.7 years on average.
I doubt that there is much statistical power to these data due to the low sample number. In 2002 there were 119 million homes in the US with a water heater (US Census data). Thus, your sample of 28 users would represent 0.00002% of all water heaters; likely not sufficient for a meaningful statistical test.

Some real data: data from www.nwalliance.org/research/reports/06-158.pdf states: "The California Database for Energy Efficiency Results (DEER) indicated an average water heater life of 15 years for electric standard tanks, 13 years for gas standard tanks, and 20 years for gas tankless units. GAMA cited a national water heater life of 8 to 12 years nationally with big variations by region based on water quality, which has
a big impact on tank life. The consumer survey performed for this study yielded an average unit life of 12.9 years, which in turn yields a slightly higher 7.8 percent of all existing household replacing their water heater annually."

So, I'd use 12.9 years on average based on the survey cited above but longevity as beenthere said is influenced by water quality and type of water heater.
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Old 11-25-2009, 05:05 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yoyizit View Post
I have been expecting you. . .

1 From forum posters:
http://www.google.com/search?client=...UTF-8&oe=UTF-8
I can assure you there is no intent to defraud.

gas heaters, lifetimes
age|how many reached this age
3|1
5..|1
7..|1
8..|1
10|1
11|1
12|3
13|2
14|1
15|2
16|3
17|2
11
19|1
20|1
21|1
22|1
25|1
27|1
36|1
37|1
n = 28
sum = 453
so avg. replacement age (which is less than or equal to time-to-fail) 453/28 = 16.2 yrs.

2 1/4th of 28 = 7, so 25% fail in less than 12 yrs.
22 out of 28 (75%) make it to 20 yrs.

3 This is the nature of averages.

If you'd like to add some replacement ages for NGWHs I'll be glad to add them. The more samples, the more accuracy.

"Statistics is considered by some to be a mathematical science pertaining to the collection, analysis, interpretation or explanation, and presentation of data,[4] while others consider it to be a branch of mathematics[5] concerned with collecting and interpreting data.[6] Because of its empirical roots and its focus on applications, statistics is usually considered to be a distinct mathematical science rather than a branch of mathematics.[7][8]

Statisticians improve the quality of data with the design of experiments and survey sampling. Statistics also provides tools for prediction and forecasting using data and statistical models. Statistics is applicable to a wide variety of academic disciplines, including natural and social sciences, government, and business.

Statistical methods can be used to summarize or describe a collection of data; this is called descriptive statistics. This is useful in research, when communicating the results of experiments. In addition, patterns in the data may be modeled in a way that accounts for randomness and uncertainty in the observations, and are then used to draw inferences about the process or population being studied; this is called inferential statistics. Inference is a vital element of scientific advance, since it provides a prediction (based in data) for where a theory logically leads. To further prove the guiding theory, these predictions are tested as well, as part of the scientific method. If the inference holds true, then the descriptive statistics of the new data increase the soundness of that hypothesis. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics (a.k.a., predictive statistics) together comprise applied statistics.[9]"

My samples may not meet this standard
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_sample
but they're all I've got.

But then, your samples may not be random, either!
Your math looks to be off.

I come up with 339.

My samples are probably more random then you think.

Why anyone would post as a statistic, a small sample of 339 units as representive of the life span of over 10,000,000 water heaters. I have no idea.

I think Consumer Report prints a mag intended to be used as landfill. But, at least they take a much large sample. And then feed it to unsuspecting people to believe them.

I probably changed out more water heaters, then you have in your sample.
And I have worked in 3 other states beside my home state.

Good thing you were expecting me. Too straighten out your mis info.

You may think your helping people. But, you hinder them with bad statistics and info.
And I feel sorry for those that believe you.
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Old 11-25-2009, 09:34 PM   #10
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It's a sample of 28, and the one between 17 and 19 is 18.

Now I get a sum of 457. You multiply the years by the number of cases, e.g., 16 YO x 3 = 48, and so on.

If these guys
www.nwalliance.org/research/reports/06-158.pdf
are unbiased, the OP should believe them instead.
But first read the report \/
"The
goal of this study is to help the Alliance better understand the market as it determines how best to move
forward to help stimulate the heat pump water heater market.
"
They don't sound too unbiased to me.

Even better, read
http://www.amazon.com/unSpun-Finding.../dp/1400065666

One thing that is constant since I took an on-the-job statistics course back in the 70s. Statistics are generally greeted with hostility, by somebody. I guess they don't give people the answers that they want, and the answers are hard to argue with [because the math gets very weird very quickly].
More often it seems to be "If I don't know the answer, then no one else does, either."

It's unfortunate. Statistics can be a very useful tool. Without it, medical science would be nowhere.

Last edited by Yoyizit; 11-25-2009 at 10:09 PM.
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Old 11-25-2009, 09:58 PM   #11
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On 2-2, they pretty much tell you. they didn't get enough support from the manufacturers, distributor, or installers to make an accurate statement on life span/failure rate of water heaters.
And are making a guess.

And that the home improvement stores, couldn't/wouldn't supply them with the info they needed either.
So they made guesses.

Next. They used(by their own calcs) only a 4.9% sample. Of the total housing in the USA to make their wild bass guess.

That agency, would be a good place for you to get a job.
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Old 11-26-2009, 04:54 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beenthere View Post
That agency, would be a good place for you to get a job.
If flattery is the
http://www.google.com/search?client=...UTF-8&oe=UTF-8
you're a quart low.
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Old 11-26-2009, 07:56 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yoyizit View Post
If flattery is the
http://www.google.com/search?client=...UTF-8&oe=UTF-8
you're a quart low.
Your statistics are as wacky as you are.

Do you know the difference between a pipe wrench and a monkey wrench?
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Old 11-26-2009, 08:27 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SULTINI View Post
Your statistics are as wacky as you are.

Do you know the difference between a pipe wrench and a monkey wrench?
Can you tell your
http://www.realbodywork.com/learn/hip/gluteusmax.jpg
from your
http://cvcomics.com/extreme/wp-conte...9/06/elbow.jpg
?

Last edited by Yoyizit; 11-26-2009 at 08:43 PM.
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Old 11-26-2009, 11:11 PM   #15
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According to the plumbers at the shop, a modern water heater averages 12 years of use before they start leaking around here. The only old ones I ever see are glass lined. Don't think they have made those for many years .

Is it fair to say a sample should only include similar construction to compare life spans?

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