How close does the actual output need to be to the calculated Heat Loss? I don't want to be stuck with a furnace running full time on the second stage and yet not being able to keep up with heating the house on cold days.
On the other hand, if the larger furnace is 17,000 BTU higher than the heat load, will it short cycle on those "colder" days?
I would go with the second furnace despite the fact you think it is oversized. Remember that for the most part, the furnace will be able to heat your house and satisfy your thermostat while running in first stage anyhow.